Retail sales rose 0.5% in October after a 1.1% increase in September. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of GDP, not the retail sales tally. Unit auto sales rose to 13.26 million units in October from 13.1 million units in September. These numbers imply that auto sales will make…
What does it say about the world when the best economic news is coming from Japan? Perhaps a better way to approach this would be to say that Japan’s latest economic figures offer some reassurance that debt worries have not paralyzed all the major economies. After three quarters of contraction,…
At the town hall meeting in Fort Bliss today, Chairman Bernanke stressed that the Fed is “focused intently” on job creation. He also mentioned that the United States will be affected adversely if there is a blow-up in Europe and added that the Fed stands ready to provide policy accommodation…
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the policy rate 25 bps to 1.25% on November 3, 2011. The possibility of a mild recession was cited as the reason for monetary policy easing. By implication, the recession should translate into fewer exports of the U.S. to Euroland. The share of US…
The Small Business Optimism Index rose slightly to 90.2 in October from 88.9 in September, marking the second monthly increase. The magnitude of improvement is small but noteworthy as it follows six consecutive monthly declines. The level of index is far below the peak seen November 2004 (see Chart 1).…
The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that fewer banks eased standards on lending to large and middle-market firms (Made up of firms reporting $50 million and over in annual sales) during the third quarter compared with prior surveys (see Chart 1). The situation was not too different in the…
By Northern Trust Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.0% in October, down from 9.1% in September. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009. Payroll Employment: +80,000 jobs in October vs. +158,000 in September. Private sector jobs increased 104,000 after a gain of 191,000 in September.…
Productivity of the U.S. economy rose 3.1% in the third quarter, after posting decline in the first-half of the year. The downside of the improvement in productivity in the present environment is that it prevents firms from increasing payrolls. Unit labor cost dropped 2.4% in the third quarter compared with…
The Fed left current policies intact and opted not to take any action today after implementing far reaching policy changes at the August and September FOMC meetings. Fed President Evans of the Chicago Fed cast the dissenting vote and would have preferred to provide more monetary policy accommodation. This is…
The ISM manufacturing survey results for October from the United States to China show a noticeable decline in the pace of activity. In the U.S., the October manufacturing survey results show an expanding factory sector but at a slower pace than the prior month. The composite purchasing managers’ index of…
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